House budget bill would strip the 30D credit from 90 percent of U.S. EVs, Atlas data shows

Our last digest outlined changes to the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) clean energy tax credits in the House spending bill, including a direct hit to the New Clean Vehicle Credit, or 30D. As written out in the text, the tax credit would terminate for vehicles placed in service after December 31, 2026, and, more immediately, the bill would reinstate the pre-IRA cap limiting eligibility to the first 200,000 “plug-in electric vehicles” sold by each manufacturer. The text puts the cap on a “controlled-group” basis, meaning that all brands under common ownership share one limit. Any automaker above 200,000 cumulative plug-in electric vehicle sales by December 31, 2025 would see their eligibility for the tax credit phase-out [1].

Here’s what the data shows

Based on light-duty sales through March 2025, nine automakers—Tesla, GM, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai Motor Group, Stellantis, BMW Group, Nissan and VW Group—have already crossed the 200K limit [2]. Together they account for approximately 6.0 million, or 90 percent, of EVs now on U.S. roads. Only 17 lower-volume companies (Volvo/Polestar, Mercedes, Honda, Rivian, Lucid, and other smaller brands) remain below the threshold.

Source: EV Market Dashboard

Re-imposing the cap would strip the credit from nearly every mainstream model. According to a November 2024 J.D. Power survey, EV buyers say the credit influenced more than half of battery electric vehicle purchase decisions. The removal of the tax credits could potentially raise sticker prices on EVs by at least $3,750–$7,500. In the short run, that sticker shock could slow year-over-year EV growth just as the market is beginning to expand beyond early adopters; in the longer term, it risks delaying manufacturing ramp-ups and next-generation platform launches—concerns automakers such as Ford have flagged in recent months.

At least $61.9 billion in announced investment and 91,900 jobs have been directly linked to facilities that currently or intend to manufacture 30D credit-eligible vehicles or batteries. Currently, $41.7 billion has been announced for facilities that are currently operational, and of those investments, 65 percent are located in U.S. Congressional districts represented by Republicans. Reinstating the cap could jeopardize this momentum and undercut ongoing efforts to attract and expand EV manufacturing in the United States.

What to watch next

Senate Republicans say the package will likely change, but even a pared-back version could reshape EV economics. We’ll be watching EV market sales data on our EV Market Dashboard for early signals of any potential shifts, while the Clean Economy Tracker will closely follow new U.S. battery and assembly announcements (or cancellations) in real time.

[1] Once a controlled group exceeds 200k cumulative plug-in sales, the tax credit falls to 50 percent of its full value for the next two calendar quarters, drops to 25 percent for the two quarters after that, and is then eliminated for that manufacturer. Because the House draft also terminates the entire credit after 12/31/2026, any OEM already over the cap on 12/31/2025 would offer only a half-credit for the first half of 2026, a quarter-credit for the second half, and none thereafter.

[2] Atlas aggregated Experian new vehicle sales for all light-duty BEVs and PHEVs (GVWR ≤ Class 2b) through March 2025 and rolled brands to their parents as noted in the text of § 30 D(e)(4). Counts are visible on Atlas’s EV Market Dashboard but have not yet appeared in a standalone Atlas publication.

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