Updated for the OBBBA: Quantifying Trump’s impacts on EV adoption

The OBBBA and related policy changes could reduce 2030 EV sales share from 48% to 39.5%, mainly due to ending EV tax credits. While this yields up to $169 billion in fiscal savings, further cuts like removing California’s emissions waiver or charger funding would lower EV adoption even more with little added savings. Despite all proposed rollbacks, EV sales are still projected to reach 31.8% in 2030, showing strong underlying growth.